Exit polls for the Israel election suggest a tight deadlock, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor former military chief Gadi Eisenkot on track to secure a clear majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Two major broadcasters projected that Eisenkot’s Yashar party and its three opposition allies in the “Change Bloc” would win 51 seats, matching the projected total for Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. A third broadcaster gave Netanyahu a slight lead of three seats.
Netanyahu Eisenkot Race Remains Tight
The projections created a tense atmosphere at the headquarters of both major blocs. At the Yashar party office in Tel Aviv, supporters cheered and chanted “Bibi, go home!” after initial polls suggested their bloc might emerge as the largest. Eisenkot declared that they had “made history” and promised to translate the people’s decision into a stable government. His ally, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, stated that Netanyahu’s bloc had suffered a “crushing defeat”.
However, there was no sign of surrender at the Likud party headquarters in Jerusalem. Netanyahu appeared before supporters and declared that his right-wing bloc had a “great majority,” calling for the formation of a strong, right-wing national government. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar dismissed the celebrations on the left as “premature,” while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urged supporters to pray for a “full-on right-wing government.”
Voter turnout reached 77.7 percent when polls closed at 22:00 local time, the highest level at that hour since 1999. Despite the high engagement, the Central Elections Committee rejected a request from Likud and other right-wing parties to extend voting hours, stating that the circumstances did not justify an extension.
Arab Parties Hold Key Balance of Power
The two Arab parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List, were projected to win a record 18 or 19 seats, emerging as the critical kingmakers in the election. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, expressed hope that the numbers would work out to ensure 61 Knesset seats for a coalition including the Change Bloc and his party. Abbas’s party previously served in a governing coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid after the 2021 elections, a government that lasted a year before collapsing.
Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, warned that the grouping “cannot be ignored under any political scenario.” The strong turnout among Arab Israelis, who account for about a fifth of the population, has intensified the focus on their role in forming the next government.
600,000 Absentee Ballots Delay Final Results
Official results will begin to be published overnight, but the final outcome depends heavily on the counting of approximately 600,000 absentee ballots. These ballots, cast mostly by military personnel, represent around 10 percent of the total votes and will not be fully counted until Thursday. Once the final results are confirmed, the president will invite the party leader with the best chance of forming a coalition to do so, a process that could take weeks.
This election is the first since the deadly Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Key issues included accountability for security failures, the conduct of regional wars, military service burdens, judicial reforms, and Israel’s international standing. If coalition talks fail, the country would face another election.
Source: BBC
