A coalition of leading UK horticultural organisations is developing an online resource to help gardeners adapt to a rapidly changing climate. The Garden Climate Assessment Tool, created by the Future National Gardens Group, allows users to predict how specific plants will respond to projected weather conditions in their location.
Unlike previous methods that relied on historical growing data, this new system evaluates plants against future climate scenarios. Users can input a list of plants to receive a risk assessment based on factors including annual average temperature, natural distribution, winter cold, and climate dryness.
Adapting to New Climate Scenarios
Prof Sam Brockington, a curator at Cambridge University Botanic Garden, noted that the 20th century allowed gardeners to grow the same plants with confidence based on previous generations’ experiences. He stated that the current shift into new climate scenarios means there are no longer established traditions to fully understand plant survival.
The tool aims to help gardeners anticipate the effects of the climate crisis rather than reacting to plant failures. Brockington explained that the system will identify plants currently struggling in the UK, allowing gardeners to gradually remove them from their collections.
The project is led by the Future National Gardens Group, which includes the Royal Horticultural Society, the National Trust, English Heritage, and the Royal Botanic Gardens. Professional gardeners were invited to trial the tool on Monday to provide feedback. While a specific release date for the public remains uncertain, Alistair Griffiths, the Royal Horticultural Society’s director of science, said the long-term goal is to make the resource accessible to all gardeners.
Addressing Drought and Weather Variability
The development of the tool comes as UK gardeners face increasing pressure to rethink what they plant. Drought declarations have covered most of England, and rolling heatwaves have scorched gardens and parks this summer. Clive Boase of the charity Climate Change Gardening said people are hungry for information on how to help their gardens cope with these changes.
Boase noted that the tool could help gardeners in the east of England, the driest region in the UK, move away from classic features that require significant water. He acknowledged that moving away from traditional elements like verdant lawns, hydrangeas, and delphiniums is difficult for those embedded in a specific cultural aesthetic, but said the tool provides necessary support for making those changes.
Laura Carey, who co-owns Carey Garden Design Studio, highlighted the importance of the tool’s ability to measure plant performance against both increased temperatures and the changing nature of the weather. She expressed wariness about planting silver birch unless the environment is fairly moist, citing the suffering of these trees during the past two hot summers.
Expanding Data and Localised Advice
The Garden Climate Assessment Tool is based on a model launched in Australia in 2022, which focused solely on trees. The UK coalition expanded the model to cover a wider range of plants. The system currently includes data from 289 UK gardens and covers up to 80,650 plant types, with plans for continual updates to strengthen predictions.
Griffiths admitted that soil type is not currently a variable in the tool. Kim Shrosbree, secretary of the Epsom Garden Society, said it would be useful to consider how gardeners on chalk and clay face opposite growing conditions. She noted that generic advice is no longer sufficient, as individual garden locations now dictate plant success.
Juliet Sargeant, a garden designer, said the location feature is essential for providing tailored advice. She stated that gardeners need to think more about individual plants and their own specific locations, as the ability to get away with generic advice has ended.
Source: The Guardian
