OpenAI has revised its annual revenue projection downward to $50bn, a figure that falls significantly short of the $70bn it had signaled to investors just last month. The adjustment has triggered immediate reactions in financial markets and intensified scrutiny regarding the sustainability of the rapid growth seen in the artificial intelligence sector.
The company based its new forecast on sales data collected through the end of September. This projection represents a $20bn gap compared to the earlier guidance, which had been widely reported and closely watched by Wall Street as a key indicator of enterprise demand for AI technologies.
Accounting Differences Drive the Gap
The discrepancy between the two figures does not necessarily reflect a sudden collapse in customer interest. Instead, it arises from a change in how revenue is calculated and reported. OpenAI investors sought to align their metrics with those used by rival Anthropic, the developer of the Claude language model, to facilitate a more direct comparison.
Anthropic includes revenue generated through cloud partnerships, such as sales via Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, in its total figures. OpenAI has historically excluded these partner sales from its own revenue calculations. When adjusted to include these channels, the gap narrows, though the official standalone projection remains at $50bn. Anthropic recently reported a forecast revenue of $65bn by the end of July.
Market Reaction and Funding Context
The news of the revised forecast contributed to a downturn in US technology stocks on Thursday. The Nasdaq composite index closed down by 1.4%, while major chip and semiconductor firms saw notable declines. Nvidia shares fell 2.9%, Oracle dropped 5.5%, and Micron Technology decreased by 4.8%. Investors appear to be reassessing the pace at which AI companies are converting massive infrastructure investments into immediate top-line revenue.
This financial update comes as OpenAI navigates a complex fundraising landscape. The company is currently in early-stage discussions to raise $30bn in a new funding round that would value the business at approximately $1.4tn. This follows a massive $122bn financing round in March, which valued OpenAI at $852bn. In contrast, Anthropic raised $65bn two months later, achieving a valuation of $965bn.
Meanwhile, SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is reportedly seeking to raise up to $100bn from Gulf state investors to support his aggressive expansion into AI and semiconductor assets. SoftBank has already committed $65bn to OpenAI and recently executed the largest high-yield corporate bond sale in history, raising $11.1bn with yields reaching 9.75%.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently stated that the company would not pursue an initial public offering this year, citing safety concerns. This decision follows a series of high-profile incidents involving AI agents and resignations by safety researchers. Political leaders from both major US parties are now calling for stricter regulations on AI systems, following warnings from Anthropic researchers about the risks of unchecked development.
Anthropic is expected to move forward with its own IPO plans as soon as next month, adding further competitive pressure to the market. The divergence in revenue reporting methods between the two leading AI firms highlights the evolving nature of how the industry measures success and growth.
Source: The Guardian
